Week 2/1-2/5 review

Monday:Interesting day that exposed a loop hole in the system. Price was zig-zagging and if I had followed through with the orders I would've had a positive day. The thing is I didn't really have a loss limit in place. I put in my orders in the beginning but after the 2nd loss, I wanted out. And price continued zig zagging after and actually did reach the high of 3935.

Tuesday: I went through a spectrum of emotions in this trade and was glad I followed through with the plan. When price was off from my entry I figured an easy 2r trade. Price flirted with the target 4 times! You can imagine I was getting a little ticked off. Then price crashed to my stop and I was about to lose it. But I guess I had enough composure to set that order in since the trend still in place. Price carried my order to target for a positive day.

Wednesday: Price made a U-turn during the US session. Got caught on the first long trade. Made it up on the second trade. I let the second trade run a bit - now 3900 would've been a good target.

Thursday: A little shaky start because I put on a wrong position size. Had to play around the stops until I had the right position. But after the trade was open, target was reached rather quickly.



Friday: Day started out in range so I didn't have a position on before NFP. About 2 hours later I shorted the move with an original stop loss at 3690. But i was too fucking greedy and wanted a bigger position so I lowered the s/l to 3685 (5 f'in pips!) so I can get a bigger position out of it. Unfortunately price retraced EXACTLY to my stop. You can't get any unluckier than that. I opened another short at the same spot. The trend took the order and it reached the target to end up in breakeven. Not bad for a NFP Friday.

Week results: 1.64%
Week analysis:

I am not satisfied with this week's performance. Mainly with Monday and Friday trades.

Monday allowed me to think about my method more closely. As long as the trend is valid I need to keep opening trades and capitalize on the move. I got out way too early just because I couldn't handle the swings anymore. From now on, I will only stop trading if I reach a net loss of -3%. Otherwise, I will keep on trading. And I had to revise the order placement rules so that the order trigger is more fluid.

Friday is a different story. Everything was according to plan. Originally my s/l was at a higher level but due to greed, I moved it lower right on the S/R. Pretty dumb move but it taught me 2 things. Stop being fucking greedy and set your s/l beyond obvious S/R levels. This is why it's important to trade off charts rather than based on your capital.

Other things I need to work on is to really be quick about placing the stop loss, position size, and target. To fumble around the numbers is just not acceptable anymore (look at multiple cancelled orders). Mainly I need to be objective about trading with the charts alone and not let the thought of $ gains (greed factor) get in the way of my decision making.

Week 1/25-1/29 review

Monday: No setups - no trades. Straight range with a little fluctuation during US session

Tuesday: Small gains. Really was hoping price would continue to make new lows but it kept reversing. I didn't take the third reversal short even though my method says otherwise. Price made a new low and finally it reverses trend. Will have to figure out how many times I will consider taking the same bias if price reverses back to entry.
Wednesday: Quite a long trade. Had to leave it open until 12pm and still did not reach the low. By that time I was at work. Since I was at work, I can't babysit this trade so closed it for a little profit.

Thursday: No setups

Friday: I thought price would continue the Euro trend up. But after the GDP news came out, price switched direction and actually took me out twice. And when I finally took a short trade, I got taken out again right around the stop. Just all around bad day.

Week results: -1.58%

January results: -2.54%

Analysis: Finished the month off slightly red. Looking back at the trades this month, I noticed I gave back too much profits on the table just in the hopes that I catch the huge runners. Those trades ended up in breakeven. I went back to historical prices and changed the profit taking rules a bit so that I would be more consistent. I figure I am more comfortable with regular profits than aiming for homeruns that occur in the 10-15% frequency. Consequently, I will have a hard target on 90% of the trade setups. The other 10% I will let it run for homeruns given that it fits the rules I have put together. I am excited for the next month, I am willing to call a profitable month in February, all bets are in!

Stock analysis: I still have my MNKD and FXP holdings. MNKD still waiting on the FDA approval. The delay was due to FDA's inability to meet the original deadline, nothing to do with MNKD. I am speculating the stock will hit high of $15 after the approval. That's my selling point, but I may move the stops if I see large reversal before that point. I also will sell if FDA needs additional trials. FXP is still in the works because China needs a correction. I hope to sell around $15 if it ever gets there.

Week 1/18-1/22 review

Bad week for trading. I had to cover 1st shift at work on Wednesday and Thursday. Really screwed up the whole trading routine.



Monday: MLK holiday. No trade setups either.

Tuesday: Price crashed in Euro session. Took a short around 4300, but price did not make a new low so I was out for b/e. In hindsight, taking 50% off profits would be a good idea.

Wednesday: At work

Thursday: At work. But, I was stupid enough to get into a trade. Big up spike took me out. Should've stayed out.

Friday: You know luck is against you when you see the pic. Price missed my entry by few pips. I actually moved my order down for some dumb reason that I wanted to be closer to the S/R.

Week results: -1.09%

Analysis:

1. S/R should be treated as a zone not a line.

2. Profit taking: The MOST challenging part of trading. I want to take advantage of huge runs, but I don't want to give away a lot of profits and let it dissapear in b/e stops.Since price moves in waves, it's a bit tricky to balance those two needs.

3. If I can't focus 100% trading, just take the day off. Case in point, last Wed and Thur should've been my days off.

Week 1/11-1/15 review

Monday: This was a great setup off a round 4500 level. I was hoping price would pierced through the high and never come back. That type of win only happens a few times a month, so this wasn't it.
Tuesday: Price was in a range most of the day. Finally broke out to the upside and I wanted to by at around the 4520 level. But I actually passed out waiting for this setup and missed the initial buy in. I usually put a b/e stop once price retest the high, but from the looks of it, it came very close. So I might have came out b/e. But I entered late and lost 1% from this. Note: don't trade tired.


Wednesday: Another losing day. The trend was strong in Euro session so I set my longs at around 4550 and 4530 level. Price went pass 4550 and and 4530 and didn't come back. So my anti hedge orders didn't get triggered. I wanted to put another antihedge around 4510 but changed my mind since the retracement is so deep that I wouldn't consider it a valid long trade.


Thursday: Not a day that I would consider my execution to be 100%. I missed the first hour of trading. Looking back, I might've made a decision to short earlier and maybe came out breakeven. But the short still looked ok and I entered. But price made a strong reversal and took me out.

Friday: A nice short. I barely got filled on this, and I was surprised price didn't even pierce 4400 level. Stopped out for a good gain.

Week results -0.81%

Week analysis: This week, price was pretty much ranging. The weekly ended in a doji, and that did not fit well with my trading. The lack of conviction threw off my trend trading method. If next week behaves the same, I might lose some more.

Week 1/4-1/8 review

Monday:Big up day but by the time US session rolled over, price didn't come to my entry and I missed another short up burst.

Tuesday: Small range day. Price finally broke the range and I was short to the downside, but did not have the momentum and reversed so I was out at breakeven

Wednesday:Another missed trade. Price literally came within 0.5 pip of my entry. And by that time it's already 1pm est, so I will close this day with another 0 gain.

Thursday :The longest trade ever. I had a short position at around 8am, didn't close it until past midnight the next day. Price pierced the 4300 level but didn't have strength to go further. I should've closed a little earlier but price made it's way back to where I wanted it so I was out.

Friday: I don't usually worry about news. The reason is that I never had price move in a crazy way since my stops are quite far away. But I should've stayed away from this NFP being the first of the month of the new year after a long break, it would definitely have shaken things up and it did. I had a short prior to the news and I got stopped out right away, but fortunately just 2 pips above my s/l. The other two trades taken brought me back to profit. I used Jacko's anti-hedge method on the last trade and took me out of the red for the day.

Week results: +0.93%

Analysis: Everything was taken per trading plan. Following the trend helped me on Thursday and definitely helped me out on Friday. What I need to watch in the future is how trading around NFP does to my performance. I want to observe 3 more NFP trading results. If it turns out all of them are negative, I will stay out for good for this news.

New Year...Movin On

I completely stayed off the markets during the break. Didn't even read a single blog, and didn't even bother looking at markets last 2 weeks. Now I am refreshed and ready to roll.

The plan for the new year is to implement the old trend trading method with s/r entry/exit. My trade management will be similar to Jacko's anti-hedge and BWILC, with a hard stop loss for the day.

The question is then, how do I determine trend. I decided that the trend should be determined whether price is above or below the Asian session's high/low of the previous day. And combine that with the price action of the Euro session, I will make a bias or stay flat for the day (until price breaks the high/low of Euro session) to make trades.

I will keep updating the blog once a week with all shots and trade rationale. Seems easier and allow me to spend more time analyzing the trades taken over the weekend.

Results

The trading method I was testing was using market profile zones as setups.

I use a custom made market profile for mt4 (which I paid for back in early 09) and look at areas where POCs converge.

Basically taking a short when price first touch top of the zone with a TP at the bottom of the zone. Vice versa for longs.

The method works great with an obvious zone, but it gets very subjective as to how far the POCs should be apart to consider it a zone. That's one thing that I struggle with.

So results were:
Nov16-Dec18
Trades: 61 (34w/27L)
Net P/L: -6.5%
Average win: 1%
Average loss: -1.5%

Even with >50% wins, the losses were slightly bigger (1.5x of TP). The reason I had the stop bigger was my observation that price makes a bounce when it first touches the upper or lower POC zone. So I give a bigger room for the price to wiggle around. The TP is always the other end of the zone. Sometimes the price shoots off past the TP points (average 2.5x the s/l). Following those few winners would definitely put the whole experiment in the positive.

The lesson from the results is that I definitely NEED to let the winners run. It's the concept that I have come across over and over and it finally hits me after this experiment. I think no matter what setups I follow, there will be few trades out there that I would get right spot on, and I have to have a systematic (objective) method of following it for bigger gains. And the trailing method cannot be based on $ value, cause that would totally screw up my perspective and greed or fear would dominate my decision.

Today is the last trading day for me for 2009. I will resume normal trading and blogging on Jan 4th of 2010. My method would slightly change for the new year. The change would definitely be more significant in the exit style as I will start taking steps to follow winning trades longer.

I have few goals that I want to accomplish in 2010 trading wise. Will share in a bit.